As I embarked on Valour’s latest report, Sovereign Connectivity – 2026, I thought the answer was obvious. The term seemed to have gained traction as a result of LEO networks, so I assumed I’d be looking at Starlink, Spacesail, Amazon, Rassvet, Telesat and a few others that were launching satellites with a cadence not seen before.
However, as I delved more deeply into the topic, I realised that satellite sovereignty isn’t new at all. Moreover, it isn’t limited to communications – a sovereign network can be as simple as a single GEO satellite used for observation. So why has it been all over my feed and in every newsletter for the past year?
When we announced we’d be starting the project, it proved a popular topic, and before long I had tens of interviews in my calendar. I asked each person: if networks such as WGS and Skynet and even Viasat, SES and Intelsat, have been active in this space for decades, offering government-operated, alliance-integrated communications or the ability for defence to leverage commercial capability, why is satellite sovereignty so topical in 2026?
1. Starlink
I know, I know – get some new material! But you’d be surprised at how often the infamous Elon Musk and his many space endeavours were cited as a key reason for the multiple billion dollar push for sovereignty amongst all regions.
Comprising over 10,000 spacecraft, Starlink accounts for over two-thirds of all active satellites. This has brought about great capability – low latency, high bandwidth and efficiencies of scale. The company is vertically-integrated, meaning all its subscribers contribute revenue directly to a US entity – from purchasing the terminal to paying the monthly subscription. Control over every aspect of the network and solution is centralised, a largely unprecedented achievement made possible through intense investment enabled by the backing of SpaceX and Elon Musk’s deep pockets.
Other countries watched Starlink, and thus the US, dominate the satellite space across all active verticals, especially mobility, and decided that it was time to develop an alternative before it became a global monopoly. There is industry speculation that one of the motivations behind China’s Spacesail is to challenge Starlink, while Europe has backed Eutelsat’s OneWeb LEO constellation to compete, at the same time as Russia started launching initial satellites for its mega LEO constellation, Rassvet.
These new, sovereign initiatives are heavily inspired by Starlink’s intense head start and success in LEO wideband satcom. However, it’s not just about sharing in Starlink’s commercial success; nations are also protecting themselves against reliance on Starlink and others during the threat of a crisis, which brings us to 2.
2. Growing geopolitical tensions
While it’s all well and good for the US to capitalise on Starlink and, more recently, Starshield, to access sophisticated home-grown capability without the need to reinvent the wheel, others that rely on the behemoth for critical comms missions have run into some issues. The biggest example that comes to mind is Ukraine – throughout the conflict with Russia, Ukraine has leant on Starlink and Starshield as these networks are the only ones with high enough bandwidth and low enough latency for specific defence missions. However, SpaceX has, on occasion, limited how Ukraine could use the network. For example, it denied extended coverage for an attack on Crimea and restricting its use for drone control, on the grounds that such use fell outside its terms. It’s clear that the final say ultimately rested with the company, bringing into question whether access really equates to control and inspiring many territories to look into developing a sovereign alternative. Just because something works in peacetime, doesn’t mean it’s suitable for a crisis.
Consequently, the EU has been developing IRIS², which features a combination of GEO, MEO and LEO satellites, some of which are already in orbit, operated by Eutelsat, SES and Hispasat, while new LEO and MEO birds will be launched in partnership with European commercial vendors and operate, ultimately, under EU control. This is, in part, to reduce reliance on foreign networks and improve Europe’s competitiveness in the space landscape. The region may become a supplier of capability to other areas, for example Africa is likely to be a target market. We expect other countries will aim to gain revenue by providing services to territories with lower budget and capability, directly competing with Starlink.
3. Delivery Mechanisms are Changing
Starshield and IRIS² are good examples of how governments and territories are leveraging commercial assets to increase capability. Partnering with the private sector and even other countries isn’t new, however it is becoming more commonplace as capability requirements grow faster than most public sector innovation can keep pace with. Pooling funding and assets to bridge the gap between a country’s sovereignty goals and capabilities has put the spotlight on what sovereignty actually means, posing questions such as:
- Who has the final say on network operations?
- Can you trust capability to be delivered in a time of crisis?
- How might this change in the future?
4. You can’t trust anyone
While the EU’s alliance-integrated approach is sufficient for many member states, others see national control over critical infrastructure as the crux of sovereignty. Germany, for example, plans to invest €35 billion in space defence over five years, with ambitions spanning reconnaissance, communications and the wider industrial ecosystem needed to support them. This includes SATCOMBw Stage 4, a constellation of more than 100 LEO satellites for 2030. Not only does Germany want greater control over its satcom capability, rather than relying on combined EU efforts, it’s also conscious of the repeated delays facing IRIS².
So how should we look at sovereignty?
For governments, sovereignty is about assured access, control over operations in different geopolitical climates, and balancing cost, capability, speed, and dependence on commercial and other partners. It is a multi-faceted aim that can be achieved in a variety of ways, each with strengths and drawbacks.
As such, a country or alliance’s assured access, control and influence should be evaluated across the full network stack and compared to its sovereignty goals. One country might own its ground infrastructure while leasing satellite capacity from a commercial operator, and this may be sufficient. For another, greater influence through public-private partnerships may be more suitable.
Our forthcoming report, Sovereign Connectivity – 2026 introduces a framework for evaluating these different approaches against three fundamental questions:
- Ambition: What are a country’s sovereignty goals, and how much control does it need over its connectivity?
- Capability: What infrastructure, technology, industrial capacity and operational expertise does it possess, at both government and national level.
- Mechanism: How does it bridge the gap between ambition and capability – through national ownership, commercial partnerships, regional alliances, or a combination?
What comes next?
Over the next five years, sovereignty ambitions are likely to influence investment, procurement, and demand across the satellite communications supply chain. Some countries will prioritise domestic capabilities; others will pursue sovereignty through trusted commercial providers, regional cooperation, or shared infrastructure. The report will explore which countries are best positioned to supply satellite capacity and services, which may need external partners to meet their objectives, and how sovereignty strategies are likely to evolve. Another key focus is the trends in enabling hardware and ground architecture.
For commercial operators, this creates both a challenge and an opportunity. Providers that can demonstrate resilience, offer meaningful contractual safeguards, and accommodate national requirements may be better positioned to support governments’ evolving needs.
This blog was written by Summer Staninski, she is the lead analyst for Sovereign Connectivity – 2026. Summer is a Senior Analyst at Valour Consultancy and is gathering input from leading stakeholders across the satellite communications and networking value chain, defining and outlining the future outlook of the sector in this new report.
To learn more about the report or participate in the research, contact Valour Consultancy at info@valourconsultancy.com.
