May 13th 2026, 15:00 British Summer Time (BST)
London. According to a new report by Valour Consultancy, “In-Flight Connectivity: China and India Deep Dive – 2026”, the number of connected commercial aircraft in China will reach more than 2,300 by 2035, up from just over 400 today. This will mark a new era where IFC becomes increasingly common across China’s narrowbody aircraft.
The report, “IFC: China and India Deep Dive – 2026”, finds that despite China representing one of the aviation industry’s most attractive long-term connectivity opportunities, the market remains significantly underpenetrated today. By the end of 2025, IFC adoption stood at below 10%.
Historically, market expansion has been constrained by regulatory complexity, geopolitical considerations, and uncertain return on investment for airlines. However, improving passenger demand for connectivity, clearer airline business cases, and the emergence of new entrants such as Spacesail are expected to accelerate adoption from the early 2030s onward.
To date, IFC deployment has been concentrated among full-service and premium full-service carriers, including China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Air China, and Cathay Pacific. Widebody aircraft currently account for the vast majority of installed systems, reflecting the premium positioning of connectivity services across the market.
Proportion of Commercial Fleet that is Connected by Airline – China & India (2025)
Source: Valour Consultancy
“China remains one of the most strategically important IFC markets globally, but also one of the most complex,” commented David Whelan, senior analyst at Valour Consultancy and author of the report. Although adoption has been relatively slow to date, the underlying market fundamentals are compelling.
While near-term deployment activity is expected to remain modest, the period between 2030 and 2035 is forecast to be transformative. “Large-scale, fleetwide rollouts among China’s major state-owned airlines are expected to drive the next wave of growth, alongside increasing recognition of IFC as a passenger experience differentiator,” Whelan stated.
To date, Panasonic Avionics and SES have achieved the greatest success in penetrating the Chinese IFC market, although deployment remains highly complex and dependent on collaboration with numerous domestic stakeholders across the value chain. Regulations require the use of Chinese satellite capacity over Chinese airspace, meaning connected aircraft must utilise domestic satellite operators such as China Satcom, APT Satellite, and potentially Spacesail in the future. Local mobile network operators, including China Telecom and China Unicom, also typically play an important role in IFC deployments, further reflecting the uniquely localised structure of the Chinese connectivity ecosystem. The study provides a thorough overview of the domestic supply chain and profiles on the major stakeholders in the local ecosystem.
The report also highlights strong long-term growth potential within India’s IFC market, albeit from a significantly lower starting point. By the end of 2025, less than 30 commercial aircraft in India were equipped with connectivity, representing approximately 3% of the total fleet. Adoption has been constrained by regulatory complexity, airline cost sensitivity, and the dominance of low-cost carriers (LCCs), alongside a fleet mix heavily skewed toward narrowbody aircraft.
Nevertheless, Valour Consultancy expects connected aircraft in India to grow in pockets over the next ten years; driven primarily by further deployment activity at Air India and potential future adoption among LCCs. However, the report notes that IFC penetration in India is likely to remain below levels seen in more premium-focused aviation markets.
“India represents a substantial addressable opportunity, but structurally it will remain a very different market to China,” added Whelan. “Growth will be relatively fast, but it is coming from an exceptionally low base, and long-term adoption will still depend heavily on the strategic decisions of a small number of major carriers.”
Valour Consultancy is a multi-award-winning provider of high-quality market intelligence and consultancy services. Now in its second edition , ‘IFC: China and India Deep Dive – 2026” provides a comprehensive analysis of the factors influencing adoption and an updated assessment of the evolving competitive landscape. Developed with input from Chinese, Indian, and international stakeholders across the value chain; forecasts include total connected aircraft, commercial fleet adoption rates, annual installations, and analysis on the supporting hardware market (servers, WAPs, modems) through to 2035. The report consists of 85 pages of in-depth market analysis and technology trends, while market estimates and forecasts are contained in an excel database. Fundamentally, this report is aimed at stakeholders with an interest in the IFC market and how it might develop in China and India.
Click here to access sample pages, the report information brochure, or to request a full copy of the report.
