Introduction
Leaving aside the economic effects of the recent tariff impositions, there are also serious and complicated consequences for the logistics of maritime sailings. It would be remiss of Valour Consultancy not to comment on this development. This has been highlighted by the increase in cancelled sailings in the Transpacific, Transatlantic, and Asia-North Europe & Mediterranean routes and blank sailings across the Pacific.
How would advances in quantum technology assist in dealing with these problems?
The Scale of the Problem
Seventy two sailings have been cancelled between 21 April and 25 May 2025, out of a total of 713 scheduled sailings, representing a 10% cancellation rate according to Drewry, who also predict that by 30 May, the cancellation rate will increase to 56% for the Transpacific Eastbound route, 31% for the Asia-North Europe & Mediterranean route, and by 14% for the Transatlantic Westbound route.
Container freight spot rates are falling, and individual fleet owners are all reporting some decrease in demand for Trans-Pacific trade. Coupled with increased port fees and extra fees for Chinese-owned vessels, there seems some chance of a shipping mini-recession. Indeed, the West Coast USA ports: Seattle, Tacoma, Los Angeles, Long Beach, and Oakland, all note a reduction in ships arriving.
Blank sailings wherein one or many of the ports on the schedule are omitted and the consequent build-up of containers in places where they are not needed, and creating a shortage in places where they are, is becoming a major headache. This is primarily a problem for container vessels. Tankers or bulk carriers of oil, gas, vehicles and bulk products are either specific for a market or, under some circumstances, driven by price fluctuations.
In effect, the marine logistics chain is being tested in a way that resembles the commissioning tests undertaken to measure the resilience of any complicated engineered system. Unfortunately, the maritime industries have evolved naturally with tinkering from various shipping companies and ports. This would normally make them very resilient, except in the cases of “Black Swan” events such as epidemics and random tariff attacks.
It would be false to make comparisons to previous eras when there were epidemics and trade wars, since the world today is far more interconnected, as the spread and defeat of COVID taught us. With global corporations outsourcing and offshoring means that the interdependency of national interest will quickly quell trade differences so the bounce-back from the current shipping slow-down is likely to be quite fierce.
Advances in Quantum Technology That Assist Maritime Logistics
Advanced navigation, optimisation of routes and schedules, and enhanced supply chain management are just a few of the potential applications. Improvements in the efficiency of port operations and enhanced security are also on the cards.
GPS-free navigation: Quantum sensors, like accelerometers and gravimeters, can provide precise position data without relying on GPS, making them more reliable and less vulnerable to jamming or interference. This has become much more pertinent since the case of MSC containership, MSC Antonia (85,760 dwt) which grounded in the Red Sea after suspected GPS jamming, disruption or spoofing. There are many areas of the world where potential harmful operators might disrupt GPS signals such as the Irrawaddy Delta, Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta, Mekong Delta, and Yangtze Delta, Nile, Danube and the Mississippi.
Autonomous navigation: Quantum sensors can be used in autonomous vehicles and submarines to determine their location and course, revolutionising maritime and autonomous vessel technology. This is particularly important for the avoidance of subsea infrastructure such as pipelines, power lines and submarine communication cables.
Precise mapping: Quantum gravity meters can create extremely accurate maps of the Earth’s gravitational field, aiding in navigation and other applications. This is self-evident.
Complex problem solving: Quantum computers can efficiently solve complex optimisation problems like route planning for fleets, shipping routes, and delivery schedules. While shipping logistics tends to be less complex (except in the case of rogue political swings) for large consignments, coastal traders and short passage trading can be very complex. These are the routing plans that might easily benefit from AI optimisation, although, conversely, tight margins in these trades makes the purchase of such help difficult.
Real-time optimisation: Quantum computing can analyse real-time data like traffic, weather, and fuel consumption to optimise routes and schedules, leading to fuel efficiency and cost savings. This is merely a refinement of current AI capabilities.
Disruption resilience: Quantum algorithms can help model and optimise supply chains to be more resilient to disruptions by finding alternative routes and sources in real-time. Again, this is a refinement of current capabilities.
Predictive maintenance: Quantum machine learning algorithms can detect anomalies in equipment and systems, enabling predictive maintenance and reducing downtime. Perhaps the benefits for predictive maintenance are overstated. Monitoring machine performance is already standard. Ideally, there should be some criterion for shipping criticality either by size or cargo volatility wherein there is mandatory requirement for prevention of critical failure but that would drive up the price of shipbuilding which might be resisted by both shipyards and fleet owners.
Demand forecasting: Quantum algorithms can help predict market demand fluctuations, allowing companies to better manage inventory and prevent disruptions in production and distribution. AI already does this and, while some success can be claimed, it is doubtful that maritime trade has been revolutionised.
Global optimisation: Quantum computing can optimise global supply chains, including global routing optimisation and more frequent re-optimisation. Again, this is a refinement of current capabilities.
Traffic management: Quantum computing can enhance traffic management systems at ports by analysing data and optimising traffic flows, minimising congestion and delays. Again, this is a refinement of current capabilities.
Resource allocation: – Quantum algorithms can optimise the allocation of resources like cranes, tugboats, and dock space, improving efficiency and reducing turnaround times. Again, this is a refinement of current capabilities.
Data security: As classical encryption methods become vulnerable to quantum computers, quantum-safe encryption protocols are being developed to protect sensitive data in the shipping industry. This, however, could be a game changer. Data breaches are becoming more common, and ransomware attacks are a part of everyday life, Quantum safe encryption would be impossible to hack without expensive and energy consuming equipment and thus easily traceable
Summary
In summary, advances in the application of quantum science offers a range of technologies that can assist the shipping industry by improving navigation, optimising operations, enhancing supply chain management, and strengthening security. These advancements can lead to significant cost savings, improved efficiency, and enhanced competitiveness in the global market. These will be needed to be applied very quickly to have any effect on the current hiccup, but the lessons need to be addressed, and the solutions adopted to address future outlier and paradigm shifting events that will inevitably occur as western societies approach a time of revolution.
