In major news this week, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order (EO) aimed at “Unleashing American Drone Dominance”, potentially turbocharging development of the wider advanced air mobility (AAM) market. However, in reading the order, and in speaking with the market at large when carrying out the research for our forthcoming report, “The Future of AAM”, it’s hard to escape the notion that, in and amongst the palpable hype, nobody has a clear definition for what this market actually entails. Where does one draw the boundaries between AAM and aviation as we know it? What makes a vehicle “advanced”? And where do drones fit into it all? In this short article, which draws from content in chapter 1 of said report, we try to provide readers with some clarity on what AAM even is.
The 2016 publication of Uber’s whitepaper on on-demand urban air transportation is arguably the starting point for much of what we see being discussed in AAM today and it’s the principal reason why AAM is often mistakenly equated with being one and the same as the air taxi market. Indeed, the whitepaper and subsequent Elevate summits ignited industry momentum and catalysed widespread investment that now stands at multiple billions of dollars. Much of that money has flowed into this one subsegment, helping the likes of Joby Aviation, Archer Aviation and countless others design aircraft they hope will revolutionise transport in urban environments. The effect has been for air taxis to dominate media attention and concentrate minds on a small subset of what may eventually come to be.
In reality, the air taxi is just one component of passenger-carrying AAM. It should really be seen as synonymous with urban air mobility (UAM), which refers to intra-city trips under 50 kilometres in vehicles that typically seat 1 to 6 passengers. But passengers can obviously be carried farther (and in bigger groupings) than short urban hops, hence the birth of the term regional air mobility (RAM). In this second passenger subsegment of AAM, we’re talking about travel spanning 50 to 1,000 kilometres, including rural-to-urban links and island-mainland connections. Importantly, many of the companies targeting this space like Heart Aerospace and Electra are proposing so-called electric conventional take-off and landing (eCTOL) and electric short take-off and landing (eSTOL) aircraft, which look a bit like the aircraft we’re all used to flying around in today.
They’re also distinct from electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) designs mentioned throughout the EO that are typically envisioned for urban air taxi services but increasingly aimed at cargo and logistics applications. So, if you’ve stayed with us so far through a sea of acronyms, AAM ≠ air taxis ≠ eVTOL. That is, there is more to AAM than eVTOL designs that carry people short distances across built environments. In fact, the cargo segment of the market is one that many industry observers expect to see scale more quickly than passenger operations. We’ll save analysis of whether or not that is likely to happen for another time.
Now to clear up what we think has become another misconception; the idea that AAM somehow has to encompass entirely new clean-sheet aircraft designs. It doesn’t. In fact, as touched on earlier with eCTOL and eSTOL developments, familiarity need not be a disqualifier. The very beginnings of the AAM market have involved the adaptation of existing airframes. The Cessna Caravan, de Havilland Twin Otter, and various seaplanes have all been retrofitted with electric or hybrid-electric propulsion systems and, in some cases, upgraded with advanced automation. Notable examples include Ampaire’s hybrid-electric EEL, Harbour Air’s all-electric eBeaver, and Reliable Robotics’ remotely piloted Caravan. Rotorcraft are also part of this shift, with recent milestones including both an electric-powered and a hydrogen-powered version of the Robinson R44 – the latter marking the world’s first hydrogen-powered helicopter.
Figure 1: All-Electric DHC-2 de Havilland Beaver Operated by Harbour Air
Source: Harbour Air
It’s the integration of such technologies that meet the “advanced” criteria of AAM and what sets this all apart from the current aviation ecosystem. Some even refer to it as the beginnings of electric aviation or “aviation 3.0” and we would not disagree with that sentiment, though it’s clear that hybrid-electric configurations will dominate many early use cases. While there’s no universally accepted definition of AAM, there is broad consensus that aircraft are generally characterised by the inclusion of sustainable propulsion systems and may also make advanced use of automation – such as autonomous flight capabilities and remote piloting. As it scales, there is recognition too that AAM will also require revolutionary approaches to airspace management, while many also insist that AAM must consist of novel aircraft configurations. However, though the vast majority of concepts are indeed novel, the examples in the previous paragraph show that this doesn’t have to be the case. What is not in dispute is that operations can occur across urban, suburban, and regional environments, and, in time, across international borders.
The “mobility” part of the AAM acronym reflects flexible aerial access to move either physical payloads (e.g., passengers or cargo) or data (e.g., sensor-based surveillance) across a range of missions and environments. And this is where drones come into play. More correctly referred to as unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), this segment of the market is integral to AAM’s evolution, supporting scalable missions such as package delivery and infrastructure inspection. Such commercial-grade UAS are distinct from recreational drones by virtue of their regulatory compliance, autonomous capability, and integration with unmanned traffic (UTM) systems. As it happens, this is the part of the market where most progress has been made to date with companies like Zipline, Wing and Manna racking up millions of deliveries already – including everything from blood samples and prescriptions to groceries and hot meals.
Valour’s currently in-development report, “The Future of Advanced Air Mobility” aims to deliver a credible, detailed, and objective assessment of the AAM market. This effort is driven by growing scepticism regarding the quality and realism of existing research and analysis of this space. Much of the available material is seen as overly optimistic, promotional in tone, and disproportionately focussed on the passenger segment, while overlooking nearer-term use cases with arguably more compelling business models.
The report seeks to challenge those narratives and provide a more grounded and holistic view of the market. It considers not just passenger platforms, but also cargo transport, deliveries and inspections using commercial-grade UAS, as well as surveillance, and specialist missions such as medevac, firefighting, and search and rescue (SAR). Our goal in writing this report is to separate hype from reality, scrutinise market readiness, and identify the true drivers – and limits – of adoption across different geographies and use cases.
If you’d like to discuss the report, share views on the market, or see a draft table of contents ahead of the release of preliminary forecasts next month, please let us know!
