As the race to dominate LEO accelerates, there are several key factors that could determine the future landscape:
- Network features such as timeliness, performance, capacity and market participation;
- Geopolitical tensions and availability;
- Space sustainability; and
- Funding.
The first part to this series outlined geopolitical constraints facing LEO operators, while the second provided a deeper dive on the possible impacts of current tensions between the US and other countries. This third and final article will examine how emerging dynamics could impact the LEO competitive environment in the future.
Where are we now?
Starlink is currently leading the LEO network race. It was the first to launch and is already replenishing its network with next-generation satellites. Starlink’s business model, which is summarised in our “Starlink Aviation Deep Dive” report, is to serve all consumer, enterprise, mobility and government customers and it has seen success across all verticals thanks to its first-mover advantage. Eutelsat followed Starlink into orbit but positioned itself differently – as an enterprise-grade constellation – and has gained traction across the mobility, government and enterprise markets.
Amazon’s Kuiper and Telesat’s Lightspeed are currently under development. It’s fairly likely that Kuiper will take a similar approach to Starlink while Lightspeed will focus on serving rural communities in North America and become involved in government, mobility and enterprise markets, similar to OneWeb.
Meanwhile, China is focussed on closing the gap, quickly building out a couple of LEO networks to serve domestic and international customers and facilitate government and defence applications. More information on the current state of play can be found in Parts One and Two of this series.
Sustainability and Regulation
Up until the end of 2022, around 14,500 satellites had ever been launched in history. Compare this cumulative total to the Starlink network which, alone, passed the 8,000 mark earlier this year, demonstrating just how quickly the satellite game has changed. Because of this intense speed, regulation hasn’t had a chance to catch up and so planned (and some approved) mega-constellations are similarly astronomical.
Figure 1. Planned Network Sizes
| Network | Planned constellation size |
| Starlink | 12,000 approved, 42,000 planned |
| Qianfan | 14,000 |
| Guowang | 13,000 |
| Kuiper | 3,200+ |
| OneWeb | 600+ |
| Lightspeed | 198 |
See Figure 1 – That is a lot of spacecraft in LEO, which poses risks such as space debris and collisions, light pollution, disruption to environment-monitoring infrastructure and the release of harmful chemicals into the upper atmosphere. Agencies such as the United Nations and European Space Agency are developing frameworks to mitigate these risks which will naturally slow the growth of mega-constellations.
However, with Trump as president, FAA restrictions may become more lax. He’s unlikely to slow the progress of networks competing with Chinese counterparts, even if it is at the expense of sustainability. Similarly, China will have even less stringent sustainability policies than the US. Europe, on the other hand, prioritises environmental policy. As a result, we’ll likely see implementation vary by country, disproportionately impacting the scale and capacity of future networks depending on the location of the network operator and/or the regions it serves.
Funding and Future Viability
While Starlink and Kuiper have leadership with deep pockets and the Chinese government is pouring resources into its LEO presence, networks like OneWeb and Lightspeed have faced financial hurdles:
- While OneWeb launched its first satellites in 2019, it didn’t go live until several years later after facing challenges such as bankruptcy, change in ownership and COVID-related delays.
- Lightspeed’s diversion from its 2020 launch schedule can be chalked up to funding and supply chain issues. It was only in 2024 that the firm gathered the funds necessary to build out the network through loans from the Canadian government.
OneWeb strengthened its position when it merged with Eutelsat in 2023, however the future of its second-generation network is uncertain. Since LEO satellites only last around five years, some of OneWeb’s will surely need replacing around 2027/28. While the firm has claimed that capital from the Eutelsat side of the business will help fund its replenishment programme, other reports suggest that the firm will need to work with the European Union (EU) to form part of the IRIS² network to get necessary satellites off the ground. If the EU requires OneWeb capacity for defence applications, similar to Eutelsat OneWeb’s opportunity to complement Starlink in Ukraine, the network’s ability to operate in other regions and verticals could be constrained.
In early 2024, OneWeb announced it would hold off on deploying second-generation satellites and focus on the continuity of its current network, Airbus Defence and Space, to bridge the gap. will feature key technology upgrades such as 5G on-the-ground integration and compatibility with the IRIS2 network, but are still missing inter-satellite links (ISLs) (that ensure fast and smooth handoff of signals between satellites when there isn’t a ground station nearby). However, the reader should note that ISLs are a planned feature for the second-generation network. ever, the reader should note that ISLs are a planned feature for the second-generation network. It will feature key technology upgrades such as 5G on-the-ground integration and compatibility with the IRIS2 network, but is still missing inter-satellite links (ISLs) (that ensure fast and smooth handoff of signals between satellites when there isn’t a ground station nearby). However, the reader should note that ISLs are a planned feature for the second-generation network. ever, the reader should note that ISLs are a planned feature for the second-generation network.
Moreover, Airbus isn’t contracted to start production until 2026, so when these interim replacements will be launched is another question. And will they provide enough capacity to replace those coming to end of life? How will the firm improve its network performance over the next few years if these are the only launch plans in place, particularly in comparison to Starlink and Kuiper?
In addition to the potential issue of OneWeb’s performance is fundraising. Recent news states that the minimum amount needed to maintain the network is €1.5 billion while current market capitalisation (June 2025) is around €1.2 billion. A new CEO has been appointed and is exploring funding options from the French government and Telecom Orange. This raises questions such as:
- Will Eutelsat OneWeb find the funding to maintain its LEO network?
- Will the network be able to provide enough capacity during the transition period between now and the official second-generation network using only 100 satellites as replenishment?
- Can OneWeb continue to compete with Starlink (and, in future, Kuiper) without ISLs?
- Will OneWeb be absorbed into Europe’s satellite strategy in the region’s bid to reduce reliance on the US?
Similarly, for Lightspeed, its second-generation network will become an important question early next decade. While it has gained necessary funding so far, these funds came from government loans and are only sufficient for a scaled back network (from 298 to 198 satellites). We have yet to see what a replenishment plan will look like for the operator and where it will get additional investment from.
It also remains to be seen how many customers both networks can serve before they become strained, though they are enterprise-grade, rather than consumer-grade, which perhaps alleviates this issue.
Looking Ahead: The 2030s
So, what does this mean for the future of LEO? Despite the controversies, Starlink will likely continue to dominate across the West and other markets where its timeliness, high performance and low cost has incentivised adoption. Kuiper will also succeed, despite its comparatively late entry to market, as Amazon isn’t so entangled with a political side while its leverageable assets, such as Web Services, could give it the edge in certain applications.
OneWeb and Lightspeed are poised to do well in enterprise, mobility and government. Their close financial ties to regional governing bodies could see them focus on military-government/mobility customers, leaving the residential market open to Starlink and Kuiper. Indeed, it seems very likely that OneWeb will become a part of IRIS2 by 2030. Although reports reveal that this will afford the operator additional capacity to expand its commercial operations, whether this eventuates remains to be seen.
For now, the French government will more than double its investment in Eutelsat, the UK government will invest €90 million, and other shareholders have also agreed to increase their stakes. The operator’s total raised is now the necessary €1.5 billion. We may see the network used increasingly across public sector/military applications, potentially at the expense of commercial and business aviation customers depending on which direction the change of leadership and ownership takes Eutelsat OneWeb in.
For Telesat, initial launches aren’t scheduled until 2026 so, as mentioned earlier, a second-generation network won’t be required until 2031/2032. One could speculate a possible merger with or acquisition by a larger satellite player, such as Viasat, which would shape the next-generation Lightspeed network, but this is pure conjecture.
Without plays from OneWeb and Telesat being as strong as anticipated and as the rifts between the US/Europe and countries such as China and Russia expand, there will be room for alternatives. One example is China’s SpaceSail, a LEO Ku-band mega-constellation that has seen 72 satellites launched to date. Brazil has already been in talks with SpaceSail, as have over 30 other countries including Malaysia. Access to these airspaces will be a huge asset to China in its race against the US.
However, as industry experts have pointed out, China has a way to go in building and launching satellites at scale, while private companies such as Starlink and Kuiper are more skilled in these areas. Though having satellites in orbit doesn’t mean much if the network never gets the green light to operate in a region. While Musk’s political views have (and will continue to) cost Starlink contracts and approvals, China is picking up opportunities left behind. More information on this can be found in our “IFC China & India Deep Dive” report.
Conclusion
There is no clear winner of the LEO satellite space race, though regionally there will be dominant networks. Geopolitical positioning is an increasingly important factor in determining availability and satellite networks will continue to be a part of defence strategy which could impact access and user experience across other markets. We’re likely to see specialisation by vertical or region as opposed to global dominance by one mega-constellation.
