Part One in a Series on Geopolitics and Satellite Networks
So, you’ve launched a satellite network. Now what? A crucial step – often overlooked outside the industry – is gaining the regulatory approval to operate in different countries. This has become more challenging in recent years due to intensifying geopolitical tensions which have caused governments to become especially concerned with national security, disruption to local telcos, and maintaining control over strategic assets such as airspace and spectrum. Low Earth Orbit (LEO) networks such as Starlink and OneWeb are particularly susceptible to geopolitical tensions.
The Problem with LEO
Compared to longer-established Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO) networks, LEO networks face a greater challenge in gaining global coverage. GEO networks are comprised of significantly fewer satellites (normally 3-50) while LEO networks like OneWeb and Starlink host over 600 and 7,000, respectively. The more satellites in a constellation that’s positioned so close to the Earth’s surface, the greater the risk of harmful debris and space junk, light pollution, and interference with existing space infrastructure including existing networks and spectrum licenses. Thus, LEO networks face greater scrutiny from regulatory bodies which can cause delays, or denials, of operations across certain regions.
While many countries have approved LEO networks like Starlink and OneWeb, a global look at their availability (Figure 1) reveals clear geopolitical hurdles. Countries such as China and Russia have completely blocked all operations, while regions such as Africa, the Middle East and parts of Asia have shown similar reluctance to approve Western-affiliated networks.
Figure 1. Starlink and OneWeb Availability (Source: Starlink, Spacenews.com)
STARLINK ONEWEB
Notes: Starlink’s availability 14/04/2025. Light blue = available, medium blue = waitlist, dark blue = coming soon, grey = unavailable. OneWeb’s availability shown is at the end of summer 2024.
While OneWeb’s lack of coverage is representative of blanket constraints that virtually all Western networks are facing/will face – for example, the inability to operate in regions where geopolitical tensions are particularly high, like China and Russia (more on this in the next instalment) – Starlink, headed by the polarising (and increasingly political) figure, Elon Musk, is facing additional issues.
Starlink: A Special Case
Starlink is a bit of a special case in the sense that it’s associated with one of the richest men in the world who also heads social media platform, X, and, up until recently, had a key role in President Trump’s U.S. administration.. As a result, the network has faced two main issues:
- Some countries are reluctant to do business with a right-leaning technocratic elite.
- It’s attached to a mega-corporation involved in multiple markets causing regulatory pushback in countries that are wary of displacement of local Internet service providers (ISPs). This concern could extend to Amazon’s Kuiper).
For example, Brazil has been hesitant to authorise Starlink’s expansion (though it was ultimately approved). Musk publicly criticised Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes who ordered the suspension of X in the country after the platform refused to take down accounts allegedly spreading misinformation. A supreme court panel unanimously upheld the block, after which Musk retaliated by accusing the nation’s leadership of censoring free speech. Eventually, Musk ceded, meaning that Starlink is indeed operational in Brazil. However, the government considered seizing equipment from Starlink’s 23 ground stations which would have jeopardised its coverage, demonstrating how a separate yet associated entity, such as X, could inhibit a network’s operations. This could also be a cause for concern for Amazon Kuiper given it’s a subsidiary of the retail conglomerate that has expanded into many other markets including media and healthcare. It’s even possible that OneWeb might face some backlash from its associations with the Ukraine and European Union (EU) as it works with them as part of their military strategy. However, it’s unlikely both networks will face as much contention as Starlink.
In Mexico, billionaire Carlos Slim ended his collaboration with Starlink after Musk shared a post on X implying Slim’s involvement in organised crime. Previously, Slim’s América Móvil, one of Central and South America’s largest telcos, had announced plans to invest $22 billion in its regional infrastructure. Starlink was named as a potential partner and was poised to gain $7 billion in revenue before Slim pulled out of the initial deal. However, the $22 billion will still be injected into improving América Móvil’s infrastructure and Slim is reportedly looking for other collaborators. Indeed, the company is already in talks with AST SpaceMobile as well as companies in China and Europe. The Brazilian government is in similar talks with China’s LEO network operator, SpaceSail, to fill gaps in regional Internet provision.
Starlink has struggled in several other Latin American countries. In Belize, incumbents heavily pushed back and Starlink was declined access to the residential market (though it is approved for aviation). Others have imposed similar restrictions including Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela. Each of these countries have sour relations with the US. In fact, in February 2025, US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, lashed out at all three, declaring them “enemies of humanity” contributing to US immigration issues. Other countries in the region including Bolivia and the Cayman Islands have taken measures to block Starlink due to the threat to local ISPs.
The story is much the same in certain parts of Africa. While 20 countries in the region have embraced Starlink, others including Zimbabwe, Cameroon and Kenya remain hesitant. Local telcos and ISPs can’t compete on price or service, so Starlink’s entry poses a serious risk to domestic infrastructure and the labour market. In a bid to remain competitive and keep Starlink out, major telcos across the region are banding together to spread the high costs of setting up and maintaining mobile base stations in rural areas to reduce outgoings, increase infrastructure and thus improve performance. South Africa has taken a different approach to clawing back Starlink’s potential revenue by mandating that it cede 30% equity to local ownership comprising black people and other historically disadvantaged groups. Musk has claimed that the initiative is racist and hasn’t even filed for a license to operate in the country.
What about Kuiper and Others?
Telesat’s Lightspeed will probably fly under the radar, much like OneWeb, but still face exclusion from Russia and China. In contrast, Kuiper may face similar obstacles to Starlink. Firstly, it’s likely to develop into a mega-constellation which will raise space sustainability concerns. Secondly, while Bezos’ businesses aren’t as politically charged as Musk’s, the same countries may be hesitant to approve a network associated with a conglomerate, especially at the expense of local and state-owned telcos.
Conclusion
LEO networks such as Starlink and OneWeb have won the approval to operate in virtually all Western regions, which are home to some of the largest domestic markets in terms of Internet provision. However, for other countries across Central and South America, Asia-Pacific and Africa, this has been slower to come about than initially expected. For example, despite being operational and open to the public since 2020, Starlink has only now (this year) just gained approval to operate in Saudi Arabia! For other countries, such as China and Russia, these LEO networks will likely never gain regulatory approval due to long-standing geopolitical tensions. However, gaining the regulatory approval to operate in a region is crucial to a network’s ability to provide global coverage and thus an optimal experience in aviation, no matter the route.
The second part to this series will explore the impacts of more recent geopolitical tensions including trade wars between the US and others.
Valour Consultancy recently published “The Market for In-Flight Connectivity in Business Aviation – 2025” which provides a deep dive on the potential impacts of LEO satellite connectivity on the current market for cabin connectivity. The report includes forecasts on the growth in the installed base across different connectivity technologies such as L-band, Ku-band, Ka-band and air-to-ground as well as associated service and hardware revenues and network operator/service provider market shares.
