During recent client Q&As on border control touchpoints, a question was put to us on where we see the market now compared to two years ago. We are in the midst of updating our Seamless Passenger Journey report and launching two new market intelligence products, our new Smart Borders report and our Smart Airports Tracker (so we have plenty to draw upon to answer this question).
Previously, we have forecast the number of eGates and kiosks deployed for immigration and border control purposes in airports to grow at a CAGR of 2.4% for kiosks and 6.9% for ABC eGates. This is in comparison to a 0.3% average annual increase for the total number of manned desks and counters – which clearly illustrates the shift to more automated systems and digital processes.
Our latest research discussions with vendors and border agencies have provided a basis for us to re-evaluate the current and future status of the market. There has been progress in advances towards more automated and smarter border management but also some bigger issues encountered.
Starting with the issues, the most significant of which relates to the delays affecting the EU’s Entry/Exit System (EES). We had expected difficulties and had previously forecast a graduated rollout, starting with the major international hubs and border crossings. It was never going to be easy to coordinate and line-up 27 national border agencies, their relevant policies and procedures and an even higher number of purchasing authorities. This last point that has been the bigger than expected bottleneck. In some instances, the acquisition of the necessary EES kiosks, associated border management platforms and additional hardware is via a single national body. For these, the procurement has largely proceeded well, however, some were a little later than expected but aided by additional EU funding to ensure that they could move ahead.
In other countries, however, the procurement and implementation has not been centralised, with the expectation that regions and/or localised groups of airports will cover the cost to be EU EES ready. This has (predictably) resulted in a much more fragmented outcome with some tenders still being issued.
There are other issues too, as the European travel industry as a whole looks to address enrolment at the border. The physical space to accommodate the kiosks at land, sea and air border crossings, as well as the time required to efficiently enrol surges of travellers as they disembark planes, trains and ships presents logistical challenges that had not been envisioned. One outcome has been for some stakeholders and service providers to request postponement of implementation, resulting in the official launch being pushed back more than once, now pencilled in for autumn 2024 at the earliest. Another has been the increase in support for enrolment in advance of travel, via mobile devices or online portals.
We would not be surprised if this is introduced in the medium-term but this will be to accompany the kiosks and systems currently being installed, not to replace them. However, there are efforts underway in parts of the world that show that this can be done (albeit on a smaller scale). In the second half of 2023, both Aruba and Curacao in the Caribbean have announced mobile-based border control projects to enable submission of traveller data in advance of travel and digital travel credentials (DTCs) respectively. Their aim is to allow seamless passage through their border control checkpoints for travellers eager to get to their hotels and the beach as quickly as possible.
Similarly, the US CBP’s relaunched Mobile Passport App allows quicker customs clearance for arriving travellers who sign up and make declaration in advance, negating the need to use the previous APC kiosks. This initiative has resulted in the widespread removal of APC kiosks from US airports whilst the Traveller Verification Service (TVS) has grown with wider deployment of solutions supporting Safer Arrivals and Biometric Exit. This now encompasses all international airports for arrivals and 49 for exit, alongside 39 seaports and pedestrian land crossings.
Back in Europe, Estonia deployed a mobile-based solution from X Infotech last year that supports biometric identification as part of its EU EES implementation. It also allows enrolment with image validation on iOS devices, complying with ICAO standards for travel document photos, that border officers can employ in the field.
Whilst these new approaches are being deployed, the traditional application of ABC eGates has also continued to develop. There are large scale refreshes and expansion in countries, such as Spain and Singapore, both of which are re-vamping their border control systems and upgrading their infrastructure. Whilst the US continues to pursue alternative mechanisms and remains a desert for ABC eGates, we have tracked notable new deployments in countries such as South Africa, Nigeria, Mexico, Thailand, Bali, Indonesia, Serbia, Saudi Arabia and some Caribbean islands – plus, the refresh in Australia and Spain, along with the selection of an integrator to renew the UK & Ireland’s substantial deployment is in the final stages and a first installation in is due shortly. More can be read on the latest activity in this respect in our new blog here.
The general outcome of all of this activity referenced is that we are upgrading our outlook for border control hardware. There has been much more acquisition of accompanying biometric equipment too, both that used to support border agents in traditional manual checks as well as that for self—service. The EU EES in particular has driven sales of biometric pods and totems, tablets, smartphones and facial recognition cameras. There are recent examples of projects in all global regions to establish national biometric databases and integration with law enforcement records, with additional platforms being developed to manage traveller and citizen personal data in a secure and private manner. This will smooth the pathway for the introduction of electronic travel authorisations (ETAs) planned in Europe, the UK and other countries, bringing them in line with the likes of Australia and the USA.
So, taking all of this into account, how has our view of border control touchpoints changed? Starting with the legacy approach, we have raised the number of manual border counters, for agent-based checks, up by approximately 0.5% from two years ago. Even with the level of investment in self-service and automated processing of travellers, we are seeing effort to ensure that travellers can be processed by agents more quickly and thoroughly – and more border guards is the way to do this until the new approaches become more widely adopted and understood.
When considering immigration kiosks, we must take two major points into effect. The first is the removal of the APC kiosks in the US, which has reduced the current installed base by around 1,600 units. Conversely, whilst we anticipated a drawn-out rollout of the EU EES equipment, it has extended beyond what we previously forecast but the final outcome will be markedly higher in volume. To date, we estimate that close to 1,000 kiosks have been installed to date in airports, approximately half of the final EES total. Taking these changes into account alongside other programmes to process travellers at borders and we believe there are currently just under 3,000 immigration kiosks in use worldwide.
Whilst there is speculation and consideration of how the market might evolve, with more done in advance of travel to push the border out and allow pre-approved travellers to cross borders with minimal checks, there has been no such wholesale removal of ABC eGates. Though we have revised and updated our estimates for some countries, lowering them in some, such as China, we have increased them in others, such as Spain, Singapore and others in Africa, Central and South America and several countries in Asia. Our current estimate is for 5,650 ABC eGates in use, up almost 5% from our previous forecast for 2023 and the greater activity in 1Q24, along with the stimulus of the EU EES will push this up higher for 2024 and beyond.
Overall, the market is undoubtedly implementing biometrics at a scale not seen before. It is now the de facto means for national border agencies to identify and record travellers entering and leaving countries as governments continue to improve the security and usability of international travel. This is driving the on-going adoption of hardware, improved infrastructure for processing travellers, and the platforms for submitting, collating and managing personal data. Valour Consultancy will continue to monitor, track and forecast these markets as part of our Airports + Borders client services.
Valour Consultancy’s Airports + Borders group current market intelligence services include:
- The Seamless Passenger Journey in Smart Airports report looks at the on-going adoption of automated and self-service touchpoints for check in, bag drop, pre-security, immigration and boarding gates, enabled by biometrics, and the vendor ecosystem supporting this.
- Smart Borders: The Future Evolution of Land, Sea and Air Borders is a new report examining the evolution towards electronic border control systems, which automatically capture, record and match travellers’ biometrics as they cross through land, sea and air borders, and the potential for risk-based assessments and pre-clearance in future border control programmes.
- Smart Airports Tracker is a new service, based upon several years quantifying and researching the market, that records the latest and historical installations of self-service check in kiosks, self-bag drops, pre-security eGates, immigration kiosks and ABC eGates, self-boarding eGates, and biometric solutions, including pods and totems and identity management platforms.
